As Yogi Berra (or Niels Bohr or Samuel Goldwyn) is supposed to have said, it’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. It’s especially dangerous to try to predict the behavior of infectious diseases, when small unpredictabilities in climate or trade or the behavior of governments can bring a problem that we thought was handled roaring back to life.
But as 2016 opens, it is fair to say that the disease public health experts are pinning their hopes on, the one that might truly be handled this year, is polio. There were fewer cases last year than ever in history: 70 wild-type cases, and 26 cases caused by mutation in the weakened virus that makes up one of the vaccines, compared to 341 wild-type infections and 51 vaccine-derived ones the year before. Moreover, those wild natural infections were in just two countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the vaccine-derived cases were in five. The noose is tightening.
The most that health authorities can hope for this year is to end transmission of polio. The ultimate goal is eradication, which has happened only twice—for one human disease, smallpox, and one animal one, rinderpest. To declare a disease eradicated requires that the entire world go three years without a case being recorded. If there are no polio cases in 2016, eradication might be achieved by the end of 2018.
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